Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de3…bf66 crypto 369 markets active 1d ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$153 (-4%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate78%288W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$30
14 days−$2
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$179
other 1% −$7
sports 1% −$13
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -6.7% -15.6% 68% 68% -19.7%
≤30d 329 -1.2% -10.6% 80% 60% -13.7%
≤90d 348 -3.8% -12.9% 77% 58% -14.3%
all 369 -2.8% -12.1% 78% 58% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 58% -13.5%
10% -20.5% 35% -21.8%
15% -28.2% 15% -29.4%
20% -35.2% 6% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses288 / 81
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)369 / 369
History coverage188d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 369 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 25¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 712 history records