Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de1…d1e9 world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$4
other 30% −$2
politics 21% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 12 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 8% -11.1%
≤90d 12 -4.4% -13.5% 25% 8% -11.1%
all 36 -1.6% -10.9% 31% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage290d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $19 +$2 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $97 −$3 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $38 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Oct 02 $9 −$1 -15%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 17 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $4 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $43 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $20 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $2 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $4 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $16 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $42 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.23 · official $40.22 (match) · 150 history records