Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0de0…8ac6 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$35 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$19
politics 31% −$15
sports 14% −$11
crypto 8% −$3
economics 4% −$2
world 4% −$3
finance 3% +$1
culture 3% −$3
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 63 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 112 -0.5% -9.9% 19% 0% -9.9%
all 128 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 102
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage102d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 94¢ 92¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $49 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $466 −$4 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$1 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $59 −$2 -4%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $68 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $187 −$2 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $144 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $217 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $211 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $218 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $38 −$2 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $65 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $181 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $507 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $275 −$3 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $68 $0 -1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $49 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $104 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 94¢ $40 52m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 14h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 20h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 21h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 26h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 26h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $52 32h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $52 39h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 40h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 44h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $37 44h
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $37 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $7 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $14 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $14 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $59 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.85 · official $38.85 (match) · 479 history records