Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0ddd…5cf8 crypto 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$189 (-0%) realized −$186 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%188W / 204L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day51.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$640
7 days−$656
14 days−$539
30 days−$1,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 +121.0% +100.0% 38% 35% -19.2%
≤30d 223 +50.7% +36.3% 43% 31% -14.0%
≤90d 392 +35.9% +23.0% 48% 28% -10.9%
all 392 +35.9% +23.0% 48% 28% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.0% 28% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here +11.2% 19% -19.4%
15% +0.5% 14% -27.2%
20% -9.4% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$186
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses188 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)392 / 325
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$142
Trades / day51.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? No 85¢ 88¢ $96 $100 +$4 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 86¢ 85¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 76¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? No 75¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Yes 28¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Jun 22 $35 −$21 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 5? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? Jun 22 $0 −$4 -942%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Jun 22 $39 −$32 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +369%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 21? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 21? Jun 22 $129 −$80 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 12? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 30? Jun 22 $6 +$48 +785%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 24? Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 6? Jun 22 $1 +$16 +1455%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 18? Jun 22 $10 −$11 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 11? Jun 22 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 3? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 21? Jun 22 $42 −$37 -87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 16? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 27? Jun 22 $7 −$22 -327%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 5? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Jun 22 $1 −$4 -503%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 24? Jun 22 $133 −$24 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? Jun 22 $15 −$222 -1451%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 30? Jun 22 $6 +$9 +154%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 17? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Jun 22 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Jun 22 $2 +$10 +445%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 22? Jun 22 $74 −$72 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Jun 22 $20 +$15 +77%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Jun 22 $5 +$14 +307%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 20? Jun 22 $4 +$27 +754%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 30? Jun 22 $42 −$42 -101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Jun 22 $1 +$68 +9743%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 22? Jun 22 $12 +$52 +428%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 14? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 29? Jun 22 $9 +$49 +542%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13? Jun 22 $26 +$13 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Jun 22 $1 +$21 +2333%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Jun 22 $5 −$7 -142%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? Jun 22 $14 −$7 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? Jun 22 $5 +$43 +918%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 20? Jun 22 $10 +$21 +218%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 76¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 89¢ $77 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? SELL No 82¢ $51 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $73 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 80¢ $37 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? SELL No 78¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $49 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $23 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 75¢ $4 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? SELL No 60¢ $34 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 81¢ $48 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 81¢ $48 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 74¢ $35 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 73¢ $37 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 72¢ $36 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL No 79¢ $54 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 83¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.28 · official $252.62 (match) · 3500 history records