Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0ddc…d4eb other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$8
other 12% −$6
politics 11% $0
finance 7% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 44 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage348d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $18 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $152 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $304 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $252 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $206 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $32 +$3 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $164 −$10 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $158 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $157 +$1 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $161 +$1 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $9 $0 -3%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on July 11? Aug 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 08 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $1 $0 -18%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $17 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto finish in 4th place at the 2025 F1 British Gran Jul 06 $17 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 06 $178 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $144 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 31h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $152 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $81 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $57 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $88 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $62 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $148 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $49 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $47 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $66 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.17 · official $144.10 (match) · 161 history records