Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:06:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0ddc…1ac4 crypto 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$728 (-4%) realized −$727 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%233W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$868
sports 13% +$6
other 8% −$577
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 20% -11.3%
≤30d 6 -18.4% -26.2% 17% 17% -11.6%
≤90d 483 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 45% -16.3%
all 483 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 45% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 45% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 45% -24.3%
15% -28.4% 44% -31.6%
20% -35.4% 43% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$727
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses233 / 250
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions3
Markets (closed)483 / 486
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan recession in 2026? No 84¢ 85¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $75 −$5 -7%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $81 −$8 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $75 −$7 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $81 −$74 -92%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $80 +$86 +107%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 21 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +73%
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301? May 21 $1 $0 +34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 20 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team - Game 2 Winner May 19 $2,336 −$79 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 18 $84 +$51 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $7 +$8 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 18 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - Esports World Cup C May 18 $12 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 40¢ $70 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 74¢ $70 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 26¢ $69 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $75 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $60 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 27¢ $75 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $166 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 47¢ $80 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $81 10h
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37d
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 38d
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 38d
Japan recession in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3 39d
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 39d
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.37 · official $6.37 (match) · 3500 history records