Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dda…eab0 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,465 (+29%) realized +$897 · open +$568
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%25W / 22L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$990
other 31% −$189
sports 20% −$93
crypto 5% −$21
world 1% −$67
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.2% -4.8% 53% 47% -32.1%
≤30d 20 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 45% -3.0%
≤90d 47 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 49% -6.8%
all 47 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 49% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 49% -6.8%
10% -23.3% 45% -15.7%
15% -30.7% 34% -23.8%
20% -37.5% 26% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$3,119
Realized+$897
Unrealized+$568
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions20
Markets (closed)47 / 68
History coverage47d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 90¢ $689 $1,447 +$758 (+110%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $650 $571 −$79 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $176 −$24 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 49¢ 41¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $101 $57 −$44 (-44%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 40¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $41 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$63 -62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 −$67 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +6%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $31 +$10 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$16 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$16 +262%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $22 +$22 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $648 +$248 +38%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 22 $415 −$32 -8%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: Both Teams to Score May 21 $20 +$14 +70%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: Draw at halftime? May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
CA Boston River vs. O'Higgins FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 3.5 May 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes: O/U 2.5 May 14 $20 +$13 +62%
AD Pasto vs. CD Tolima: Both Teams to Score May 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $6 −$4 -71%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $10 +$2 +17%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score May 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 $0 -4%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. América de Cali: Both Teams to Score May 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Huracán end in a draw? May 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Atlético Nacional vs. Internacional de Bogotá: O/U 2.5 May 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5 +$9 +184%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 1.5 May 04 $5 +$2 +42%
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 May 04 $5 +$4 +76%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-03-07? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$10 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 58¢ $27 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $30 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $25 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 59¢ $41 4d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $10 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 77¢ $14 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $20 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $1,344 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $22 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Franc BUY 22¢ $5 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,118.51 · official $3,118.73 (match) · 155 history records