Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0dda…fc99 sports 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$404 (-6%) realized −$404 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate73%396W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$116
14 days−$106
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$301
crypto 9% −$132
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -5.3% -14.3% 68% 41% -16.8%
≤30d 482 -0.2% -9.7% 74% 43% -14.7%
≤90d 546 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 43% -15.6%
all 546 +1.1% -8.5% 73% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 43% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 23% -23.7%
15% -25.3% 12% -31.1%
20% -32.6% 6% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$404
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses396 / 150
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)546 / 547
History coverage36d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $17 +$3 +17%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $14 −$3 -22%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7 +$3 +41%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $22 −$5 -21%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $9 −$4 -46%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$2 +32%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$4 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $36 −$13 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$6 -18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$20 -79%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $48 −$13 -27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$5 -96%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$3 -87%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +31%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $8 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 3m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $10 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $7 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $2 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $2 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $10 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 87¢ $1 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 87¢ $7 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 10¢ $1 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 80¢ $8 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $5 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $2 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $10 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $4 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $8 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $10 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $6 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $4 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 74¢ $7 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 32¢ $3 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $8 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $9 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $1 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 78¢ $7 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag SELL Geekay Esports 50¢ $4 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag SELL Geekay Esports 50¢ $0 20h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag SELL Geekay Esports 50¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.05 · official $8.95 (match) · 1576 history records