Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0D 0x0dd8…8883 crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate50%10W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day49.0pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-28.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-21.3%	-28.8%	50%	45%	-32.9%
≤30d	20	-21.3%	-28.8%	50%	45%	-32.9%
≤90d	20	-21.3%	-28.8%	50%	45%	-32.9%
all	20	-21.3%	-28.8%	50%	45%	-32.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover49.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-28.8%	45%	-32.9%
10% ← realistic here	-35.6%	45%	-39.3%
15%	-41.8%	35%	-45.2%
20%	-47.5%	20%	-50.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late -31% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$13

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses10 / 10

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day49.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 21	$68	−$22	-33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 21	$77	−$15	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$22	-42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 21	$52	+$22	+43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$9	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 21	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$27	+104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$12	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1	+$1	+70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	+$3	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 20	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 20	$5	+$4	+77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 20	$5	$0	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 20	$5	+$1	+22%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Down	51¢	$23	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$26	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$7	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$5	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Down	34¢	$10	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$8	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$5	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$27	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$26	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$32	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Down	58¢	$27	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$43	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$35	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$37	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.12 · official $25.12 (match) · 51 history records