Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0dd8…2b6c weather 1750 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$633 (+1%) realized +$655 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%1595W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days+$10
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1145 +0.4% -9.1% 99% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 1617 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.4%
all 1617 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$4,820
Realized+$655
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1595 / 22
Open positions133
Markets (closed)1617 / 1750
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 133 History 1617 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 26? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 27? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 46°C on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 26? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 27? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 16? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on June Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on June 16? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 16? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $25 21m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on June 26 BUY No 100¢ $25 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $25 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $25 23m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $25 24m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $25 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $25 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $25 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $25 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $25 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $25 30m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $77 31m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $42 32m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $50 32m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $25 32m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $24 32m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 33m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $50 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,820.28 · official $4,820.28 (match) · 3500 history records