Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0D 0x0dd8…1f0e sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$184 (+16%) realized +$187 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown79%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$75

7 days−$75

14 days−$75

30 days−$75

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-20.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-23.8%	-31.1%	43%	43%	-23.0%
≤30d	14	-23.8%	-31.1%	43%	43%	-23.0%
≤90d	14	-23.8%	-31.1%	43%	43%	-23.0%
all	16	-12.4%	-20.8%	44%	44%	+9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.8%	44%	+9.2%
10%	-28.4%	44%	-1.3%
15%	-35.3%	44%	-10.8%
20%	-41.6%	31%	-19.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$65 vs −$31 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage

Net worth$265

Realized+$187

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions8

Markets (closed)16 / 24

History coverage369d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown79%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	56¢	56¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$42	$42	−$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	Under	62¢	62¢	$29	$29	−$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	Under	55¢	55¢	$26	$26	−$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Under	51¢	50¢	$23	$23	−$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Over	51¢	50¢	$23	$22	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$36	+$33	+93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$30	+$13	+42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	Jun 14	$32	+$36	+114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$46	+$46	+101%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 14	$14	−$14	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$30	−$30	-98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$30	−$30	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$61	+$44	+73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$37	+$16	+44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5	Jun 13	$41	−$40	-99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$61	−$60	-99%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?	Jun 23	$190	+$267	+140%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?	Jun 11	$180	−$11	-6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$29	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$36	1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$26	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	67¢	$42	1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	51¢	$23	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$46	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	51¢	$23	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	56¢	$46	1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$14	18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$36	18h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$20	18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	70¢	$30	18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$20	18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$30	18h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	46¢	$32	30h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	49¢	$46	30h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$30	30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	69¢	$37	42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$61	42h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5	BUY Under	58¢	$41	42h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	BUY Switzerland	59¢	$61	42h
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?	SELL No	98¢	$457	356d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?	BUY No	41¢	$190	368d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?	SELL No	64¢	$169	368d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?	BUY No	68¢	$180	368d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.23 · official $265.23 (match) · 32 history records