Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

0D 0x0dd7…f57f other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+4.1%	-5.8%	67%	67%	-9.3%
≤30d	3	+4.1%	-5.8%	67%	67%	-9.3%
≤90d	3	+4.1%	-5.8%	67%	67%	-9.3%
all	3	+4.1%	-5.8%	67%	67%	-9.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.8%	67%	-9.3%
10%	-14.8%	67%	-18.0%
15%	-23.0%	67%	-25.9%
20%	-30.6%	33%	-33.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$110	$111	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$20	+$10	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 16	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$17	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$111	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$30	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$26	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.72 · official $110.72 (match) · 7 history records