Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0dd6…5f62 sports 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$39,062 (-4%) realized −$40,206 · open +$1,144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%244W / 157L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,662per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$3,794est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$37,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$23,175
world 26% −$757
other 19% +$320
crypto 7% +$1,513
politics 6% +$4,420
finance 1% −$1,211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.5% -12.7% 74% 40% -12.0%
≤30d 175 -6.3% -15.3% 62% 34% -11.6%
≤90d 401 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 39% -11.2%
all 401 -4.6% -13.7% 61% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 39% -11.2%
10% -21.9% 23% -19.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 11% -27.5%
20% -36.4% 4% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$3,239) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$647 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$37,610
Realized−$40,206
Unrealized+$1,144
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses244 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$3,794
Open positions12
Markets (closed)401 / 413
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$2,662
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $16,797 $18,375 +$1,578 (+9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $11,323 $11,519 +$196 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? No 92¢ 90¢ $2,273 $2,234 −$39 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 66¢ $1,995 $1,638 −$357 (-18%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 74¢ $1,430 $1,295 −$135 (-9%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 90¢ $807 $900 +$93 (+12%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jessica Pegula 64¢ 64¢ $700 $692 −$8 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $502 $404 −$98 (-19%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $359 $360 +$1 (+0%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $127 $130 +$2 (+2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $135 $45 −$90 (-67%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $947 +$156 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $478 −$478 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,006 +$216 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,613 +$387 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6,592 +$408 +6%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2,536 +$211 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15,906 −$747 -5%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $2,793 −$341 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $788 +$257 +33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11,681 +$311 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $855 +$345 +40%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3,355 +$141 +4%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $1,615 +$211 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $11,737 +$271 +2%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $962 −$962 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,702 −$1,702 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3,467 −$3,467 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3,397 +$547 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1,706 +$137 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $3,188 +$349 +11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $3,946 +$282 +7%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4,448 +$102 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,425 +$128 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $346 −$155 -45%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5,284 −$291 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $655 −$655 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,976 +$524 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,575 +$725 +46%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $160 +$201 +126%
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 13 $493 +$307 +62%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $422 +$62 +15%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,210 +$61 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,867 +$145 +5%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,211 −$1,211 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $678 +$576 +85%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,430 +$347 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1,745 −$1,745 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6,770 +$730 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $889 +$115 +13%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $222 +$9 +4%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4,864 +$121 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,352 +$463 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $5,889 +$1,611 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $2,786 −$786 -28%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $7,284 +$242 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $369 +$18 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 04 $62 −$62 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 04 $961 −$527 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $83 11m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 71¢ $0 21m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 92¢ $945 24m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 71¢ $19 45m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 71¢ $23 45m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 71¢ $36 45m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 71¢ $284 46m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 92¢ $156 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 86¢ $449 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 86¢ $159 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 84¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 84¢ $493 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $212 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 75¢ $169 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 73¢ $367 1h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 1h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $196 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY No 92¢ $1,179 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $55 1h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 65¢ $624 2h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $18 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $70 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $70 2h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $70 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,609.93 · official $37,609.93 (match) · 3500 history records