Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dd5…1c08 world 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
other 25% −$5
sports 16% −$10
politics 7% +$2
tech 4% −$5
weather 1% $0
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 31 +62.0% +46.5% 45% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 43 +43.8% +30.1% 35% 5% -9.7%
all 63 +28.3% +16.1% 41% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.1% 5% -9.8%
10% +5.0% 5% -18.4%
15% -5.2% 5% -26.3%
20% -14.4% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 37
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage530d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 67¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $86 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $95 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $86 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $182 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $118 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$3 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $201 −$7 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $62 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $93 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $99 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $95 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $97 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $154 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $160 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $275 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $102 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $196 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $11 +$7 +66%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $97 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $71 −$4 -5%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $45 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $86 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $154 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $24 −$3 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,002 −$3 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $553 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $20 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $79 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $9 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $38 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $49 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $87 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $87 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $22 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $87 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $86 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $95 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $95 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $87 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $86 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $84 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $18 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $23 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.41 · official $87.10 (match) · 268 history records