Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0dd5…9858 crypto 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,778 (+13%) realized +$1,778 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%64W / 126L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$507
7 days−$507
14 days−$507
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% +$1,001
other 18% +$274
tech 12% −$102
world 5% +$13
politics 4% +$29
sports 2% +$368
finance 1% +$12
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -27.2% -34.2% 9% 9% -34.6%
≤30d 13 -8.1% -16.8% 15% 15% -13.8%
≤90d 31 -17.7% -25.5% 32% 32% -0.4%
all 190 -4.2% -13.3% 34% 29% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 29% +1.1%
10% -21.6% 27% -8.6%
15% -29.2% 24% -17.4%
20% -36.1% 19% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$23 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,778
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses64 / 126
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)190 / 191
History coverage560d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $25 −$21 -86%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 25 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $106 +$50 +47%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $78 −$35 -45%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $77 −$5 -6%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jun 25 $150 −$34 -23%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Jun 25 $102 −$17 -16%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $103 −$6 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $500 −$154 -31%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $655 −$269 -41%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $151 +$446 +295%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026? May 21 $210 +$315 +150%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $46 −$45 -98%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $26 +$12 +47%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? May 03 $26 −$25 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 23 $200 +$100 +50%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? Apr 16 $45 +$10 +23%
Will AS Nancy-Lorraine win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $55 −$28 -51%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $250 +$78 +31%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 06 $26 −$25 -98%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $280 +$150 +54%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $125 −$80 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 30 $51 +$19 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 30 $600 +$121 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Mar 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $650 +$576 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $250 +$114 +46%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 4? Feb 03 $10 −$10 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $20 +$21 +105%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 03 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 03 $10 +$37 +369%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 03 $10 +$124 +1237%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jan 31 $150 −$24 -16%
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January? Jan 31 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 29 $25 +$64 +256%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 2h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $43 2h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 18¢ $73 2h
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $75 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $85 2h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 24¢ $97 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $152 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $190 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $105 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $36 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 25d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 25d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $77 25d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 7¢ $78 25d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $430 25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 25d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 67¢ $106 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 34d
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $197 50d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 6¢ $38 50d
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 52d
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 52d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $194 52d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 492 history records