Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dd3…36c5 crypto 1539 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$385 (-1%) realized −$162 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%1496W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day122.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days−$183
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$102
other 7% −$74
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +0.4% -9.1% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1537 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 1537 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 3% -9.9%
all 1537 -0.6% -10.1% 97% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 3% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1496 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1537 / 1539
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day122.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $133 $130 −$3 (-2%)
Will Japan be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 38¢ $29 $16 −$13 (-45%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $300 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 23m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 27m
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 78¢ $133 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 47m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 58m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 58m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $299 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.81 · official $146.49 (match) · 3500 history records