Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dcc…4e08 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-7%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% $0
other 24% +$14
sports 21% −$90
politics 21% +$6
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 -7.9% -16.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -7.9% -16.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -9.6% -18.2% 33% 6% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 6% -16.6%
10% -26.0% 3% -24.6%
15% -33.2% 3% -31.8%
20% -39.7% 3% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage481d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $12 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $55 $0 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 22 $25 $0 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Mar 21 $11 +$13 +117%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-03-05? Mar 04 $4 $0 +0%
California vs. Louisville Mar 04 $25 $0 +0%
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota Mar 04 $24 $0 +0%
Iowa vs. Illinois Mar 04 $19 +$4 +20%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Mar 02 $1 $0 -10%
Northwestern State vs. SE Louisiana Feb 25 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or higher on February 2 Feb 25 $11 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-02-25? Feb 25 $32 −$1 -3%
Indiana State vs. Murray State Feb 24 $30 $0 +0%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Feb 24 $98 +$9 +9%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 23 $98 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $11 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $12 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $23 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $28 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $28 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $18 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $28 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $27 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes $3 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $0 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes $2 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $28 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $28 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.68 · official $27.68 (match) · 119 history records