Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dcb…492e politics 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$795 (+0%) realized +$795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%41W / 116L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,143per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$16
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$89
other 40% +$216
sports 10% +$645
world 3% −$1
culture 1% −$3
tech 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 -6.8% -15.6% 9% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 92 -10.7% -19.2% 7% 3% -9.5%
all 157 +1.9% -7.8% 26% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -9.1%
10% -16.7% 11% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 10% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,597) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$14 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses41 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage153d
Avg bet$1,143
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $417 $417 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 22 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $308 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,955 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $804 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,216 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,710 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $320 +$3 +1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,935 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,118 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,845 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $71 +$56 +79%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $370 +$1 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,973 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,736 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $765 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $3,137 −$4 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $611 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,749 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,822 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $5,842 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,876 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 19 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,715 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $2,804 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,073 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $418 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $419 18h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $419 20h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $367 24h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $368 27h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $514 43h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $515 45h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $308 47h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $308 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $398 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $399 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $393 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $393 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $382 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $383 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $688 6d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $689 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $802 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $804 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $626 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $627 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $606 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $607 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $841 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $843 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $596 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $596 9d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $675 10d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $676 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $320 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.27 · official $417.27 (match) · 533 history records