Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0D 0x0dc7…b78a sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$426 (+1%) realized +$467 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%63W / 48L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$2,543
14 days−$2,430
30 days−$2,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$332
crypto 6% +$5
other 2% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -56.5% -60.7% 18% 18% -65.3%
≤30d 18 -47.1% -52.1% 22% 22% -61.5%
≤90d 91 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 40% -12.7%
all 111 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 44% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -8.9%
10% -19.7% 32% -17.6%
15% -27.5% 26% -25.6%
20% -34.6% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$154 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$467
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses63 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage98d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $101 $60 −$41 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 −$251 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$101 +48%
Lakers vs. Warriors Jun 15 $120 −$16 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jun 15 $169 −$169 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Jun 15 $526 −$75 -14%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $975 −$847 -87%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 15 $1,269 −$1,269 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $72 −$20 -28%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $213 +$169 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $100 +$113 +114%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $262 +$20 +8%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Apr 15 $109 +$39 +36%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $50 +$63 +126%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $50 +$103 +206%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $987 +$178 +18%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $140 +$159 +114%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $845 −$2 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $805 +$40 +5%
Mavericks vs. Clippers Apr 08 $782 +$48 +6%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $738 +$43 +6%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $507 +$230 +46%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Apr 07 $330 +$49 +15%
Lakers vs. Pistons Apr 07 $56 −$18 -32%
Suns vs. Raptors Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 07 $585 +$277 +47%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Warriors vs. Wizards Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
76ers vs. Heat Apr 07 $514 −$234 -46%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $238 −$238 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Hornets Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Apr 07 $464 −$463 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 07 $936 −$566 -60%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Spurs vs. Kings Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 07 $41 +$70 +172%
Knicks vs. Hornets Apr 07 $83 −$83 -100%
Hornets vs. Timberwolves Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 07 $118 −$118 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $104 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $253 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $212 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $52 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 27¢ $52 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $72 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $213 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $213 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 46¢ $100 11d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers $71 59d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 67¢ $169 62d
Magic vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 59¢ $172 62d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 50¢ $148 62d
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks SELL Shanghai Sharks 100¢ $148 63d
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks BUY Shanghai Sharks 73¢ $109 63d
Magic vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 53¢ $110 63d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 54¢ $114 63d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns SELL Trail Blazers 99¢ $113 63d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Trail Blazers 43¢ $50 63d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 31¢ $53 63d
Nuggets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $1,269 65d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $153 67d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets BUY Timberwolves 32¢ $50 67d
Thunder vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 99¢ $1,165 67d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 83¢ $987 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.43 · official $60.43 (match) · 283 history records