Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dc7…6b3b world 45 markets active 2d ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$10
other 18% −$10
politics 7% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.2% -7.5% 43% 14% -7.6%
≤30d 17 +5.5% -4.6% 41% 12% -8.4%
≤90d 17 +5.5% -4.6% 41% 12% -8.4%
all 44 +1.9% -7.8% 34% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage261d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 88¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 +$15 +28%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $61 −$5 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $56 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $52 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $104 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $49 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $45 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 -1%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $22 −$1 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 21 $14 −$4 -27%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $17 −$3 -18%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $9 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $51 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $38 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $57 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $56 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $25 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $47 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $6 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $6 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $12 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $0 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.19 · official $66.00 (match) · 202 history records