Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

0D 0x0dc2…794e other 3 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$565 (+18%) realized +$1,132 · open −$567

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$1,049per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+11.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+23.0%	+11.2%	50%	50%	+14.0%
≤30d	2	+23.0%	+11.2%	50%	50%	+14.0%
≤90d	2	+23.0%	+11.2%	50%	50%	+14.0%
all	2	+23.0%	+11.2%	50%	50%	+14.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.2%	50%	+14.0%
10%	+0.6%	50%	+3.1%
15%	-9.1%	50%	-6.9%
20%	-18.0%	50%	-16.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +26% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,159 vs −$515 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$91

Realized+$1,132

Unrealized−$567

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,049

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	54¢	8¢	$659	$91	−$567 (-86%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$1,184	−$515	-44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1,296	+$1,159	+89%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$668	2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$669	2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1,184	22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,455	22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$1,296	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.48 · official $91.48 (match) · 6 history records