trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +4.0% | -5.9% | 67% | 0% | -6.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 50% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 55% | 0% | -8.3% |
| all | 25 | -2.1% | -11.4% | 44% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.4% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -19.9% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 4% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 4% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $32 | $32 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 73¢ | 46¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-38%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $30 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $29 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 22 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 26 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 25 | $30 | −$1 | -4% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $31 | +$2 | +7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 22 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 21 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 19 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | -24% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 launch before April? | Mar 21 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Samford vs. UNC Greensboro | Mar 21 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | Mar 01 | $4 | +$3 | +68% |
| Bradley vs. Valparaiso | Feb 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Penn State vs. Indiana | Feb 26 | $5 | −$1 | -10% |
| Fordham vs. George Mason | Feb 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Mississippi State vs. Alabama | Feb 25 | $4 | $0 | -7% |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Feb 25 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 24 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 22 | $3 | $0 | -5% |