Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0dbf…1103
sports · 56 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$561 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$398 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$74
Realized+$398
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses15 / 35
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)50 / 56
History coverage45d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 6 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$530
14 days+$849
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pittsburgh Pirates 34¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Avalanche 48¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 20¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 27¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 28¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche Wild 20¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Oilers vs. Ducks Oilers 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Penguins vs. Flyers Penguins 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 13¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? No 10¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Cavaliers 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,078 +$95 +9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$10 -32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $75 −$73 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $85 +$223 +260%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $51 +$70 +136%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $878 +$236 +27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $39 +$102 +262%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $56 +$33 +58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $97 +$206 +212%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$7 +131%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $65 −$29 -44%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $2 +$1 +26%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 27 $16 −$1 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $30 +$14 +48%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $48 −$12 -25%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 24 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? May 24 $21 −$7 -32%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $75 −$73 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $22 −$22 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $61 −$60 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $357 −$350 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $158 −$155 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $5 −$1 -27%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$56 +550%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $279 +$358 +128%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $123 −$70 -57%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $51 −$20 -39%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 14 $10 +$25 +250%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $133 +$193 +145%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Stars vs. Wild May 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $26 −$14 -56%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$556
other 6% −$164
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $1,002 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $20 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 57¢ $110 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $5 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $51 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 22¢ $21 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 33h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $41 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 13¢ $31 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 26¢ $3 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $308 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 20¢ $14 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $71 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 54¢ $121 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 22¢ $51 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 1¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $501 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 86¢ $151 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $31 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 34¢ $61 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 66¢ $381 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 47¢ $41 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $20 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $183 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 62¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 62¢ $48 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $41 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 9¢ $10 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 51¢ $141 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.7% +16.4% 57% 43% +12.2%
≤30d 38 -10.6% -19.1% 32% 29% -2.6%
≤90d 50 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 28% -0.6%
all 50 -15.8% -23.8% 30% 28% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 28% -0.6%
10% -31.1% 28% -10.1%
15% -37.8% 24% -18.8%
20% -43.9% 22% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.76 · official $73.76 (match) · 175 history records