Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0dbd…2d16 crypto 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$514 (+2%) realized +$514 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%159W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$184
14 days+$193
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$176
sports 0% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +8.7% -1.6% 73% 50% -4.2%
≤30d 268 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 43% -9.6%
≤90d 268 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 43% -9.6%
all 268 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 43% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 43% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 33% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 19% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses159 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)268 / 268
History coverage20d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 268 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$60 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $204 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $72 −$46 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $256 −$98 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $91 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $81 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $182 −$62 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $205 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $255 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$57 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $236 +$122 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $206 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $204 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $306 −$48 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$50 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$57 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $409 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $204 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$53 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $139 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 889 history records