Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0dba…9b6a crypto 116 markets active 8h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-5%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%70W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$27
other 25% −$15
sports 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 54% -6.4%
≤30d 116 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 54% -15.7%
≤90d 116 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 54% -15.7%
all 116 -11.7% -20.1% 60% 54% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 54% -15.7%
10% -27.8% 48% -23.8%
15% -34.8% 34% -31.2%
20% -41.2% 24% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses70 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +49%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$17 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$13 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$46 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $6 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records