Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0D
0x0db3…5704
weather · 280 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$253 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$243 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$243
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses94 / 179
Open positions7
Markets (closed)273 / 280
History coverage95d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 7 History 273 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$60
14 days−$92
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? No 12¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 9? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 4? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 3? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 22? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will "Iran" be said on the next episode of the Joe Rogan Experience? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 6? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $119 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $52 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 −$45 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $73 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $34 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $8 $0 -4%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 06 $57 −$18 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 87% −$209
crypto 6% −$67
other 4% +$23
finance 2% −$2
world 1% −$21
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 4m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 26m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 28m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 34m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 37m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 39m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -4.7% -13.8% 33% 7% -17.7%
≤30d 108 -5.6% -14.5% 39% 10% -16.3%
≤90d 252 -17.5% -25.3% 33% 8% -17.6%
all 273 -15.2% -23.3% 34% 11% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 11% -15.9%
10% -30.6% 8% -24.0%
15% -37.3% 7% -31.3%
20% -43.5% 7% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.96 · official $26.96 (match) · 1773 history records