Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0daf…be17 sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$208 (-5%) realized +$135 · open −$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days−$103
14 days−$103
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$43
other 29% −$324
sports 20% +$105
crypto 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -13.1% -21.4% 33% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 25 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 36% -2.8%
≤90d 25 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 36% -2.8%
all 52 -16.9% -24.9% 42% 35% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 35% -3.6%
10% -32.0% 29% -12.9%
15% -38.6% 25% -21.3%
20% -44.6% 15% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$24 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$1,707
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$343
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)52 / 62
History coverage220d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $1,000 $998 −$2 (-0%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? No 51¢ 27¢ $400 $210 −$190 (-47%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? No 45¢ 39¢ $180 $156 −$24 (-13%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+10%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 8¢ $200 $71 −$129 (-65%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 20¢ 16¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$44 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 +$44 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 +$114 +344%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$71 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$226 +45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 01 $3 −$3 -89%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Feb 01 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jan 30 $7 +$1 +14%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 27 $1 $0 -8%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 27 $3 $0 +15%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 27 $20 $0 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 26 $42 −$14 -34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 24 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 23 $1 +$1 +112%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 23 $3 +$8 +263%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jan 22 $5 +$2 +32%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 21 $20 +$1 +5%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jan 21 $10 +$4 +35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jan 20 $22 +$11 +50%
Ranger FDV above $20M one day after launch? Jan 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 20 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $40 +$4 +9%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Oh My God (BO3) Jan 16 $20 +$3 +18%
Over $15M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $60 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 25h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 20¢ $20 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $36 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $50 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $51 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $51 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,707.22 · official $1,707.22 (match) · 110 history records