Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0da9…b527 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,191 (+26%) realized +$9,123 · open −$932
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,304per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$949now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,532
7 days+$8,532
14 days+$8,532
30 days+$8,532
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$8,826
world 13% −$960
politics 5% −$731
sports 1% −$214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% +26.9%
≤30d 3 +28.3% +16.1% 67% 67% +26.9%
≤90d 10 -52.9% -57.4% 20% 20% +15.9%
all 18 -41.2% -46.8% 28% 28% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.8% 28% +14.7%
10% -51.9% 17% +3.7%
15% -56.6% 17% -6.3%
20% -60.8% 17% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -35% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,064 vs −$190 · ×10.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$949
Realized+$9,123
Unrealized−$932
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage111d
Avg bet$1,304
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 19¢ $1,082 $539 −$542 (-50%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $250 $62 −$188 (-75%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 11¢ $95 $55 −$40 (-42%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $194 $42 −$152 (-78%)
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $6,292 +$942 +15%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $4,511 −$249 -6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10,403 +$7,838 +75%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 17 $3,339 −$461 -14%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 11 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 11 $81 −$81 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 18 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 02 $214 −$214 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England win? Mar 15 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Scotland win? Mar 15 $281 −$281 -100%
Will France win? Mar 15 $1,543 +$337 +22%
Will Wales win? Mar 14 $836 +$967 +116%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 12 $385 −$56 -14%
Will Wales win? Mar 08 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ireland win? Mar 07 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $369 +$236 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,114 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 95¢ $252 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes $261 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $4,839 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $4,262 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $4,565 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,799 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $7,142 25h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $4,511 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $4,511 25h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $273 25h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $273 25h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,721 36h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,721 39h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $623 35d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,955 35d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $2,613 35d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $961 35d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $971 35d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,060 35d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,066 35d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,302 40d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $70 40d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,396 41d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $830 43d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $854 43d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,789 43d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 49d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY No 36¢ $81 49d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $160 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $948.58 · official $962.25 · 73 history records