Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0da7…beef sports 282 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-8%) realized −$37 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%91W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$1
14 days−$12
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$21
crypto 31% −$23
other 13% −$8
world 4% −$4
weather 2% −$2
politics 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -9.3% -17.9% 18% 5% -4.8%
≤30d 86 -16.8% -24.7% 23% 7% -20.4%
≤90d 269 -12.5% -20.8% 34% 16% -20.9%
all 269 -12.5% -20.8% 34% 16% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 16% -20.9%
10% -28.4% 12% -28.5%
15% -35.3% 11% -35.4%
20% -41.7% 10% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses91 / 178
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions13
Markets (closed)269 / 282
History coverage49d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $2 $0 -16%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $2 $0 -25%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$8 +172%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$2 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 +$3 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Odd/Even Score Jun 10 $5 −$4 -99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-4.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -80%
Spread: CD Castellón (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $2 7m
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 9m
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 16m
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $2 16m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 22m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $2 22m
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.46 · official $12.30 (match) · 762 history records