Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0da6…255f sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$188 (-11%) realized −$187 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days−$122
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$196
world 7% −$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.8% -15.7% 52% 48% -20.0%
≤30d 41 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 46% -21.6%
≤90d 41 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 46% -21.6%
all 41 -10.7% -19.2% 49% 46% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 46% -21.6%
10% -26.9% 46% -29.1%
15% -34.0% 44% -36.0%
20% -40.5% 37% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage9d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Nuno Borges 57¢ 57¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Zizou Bergs 65¢ 66¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Gabriela Ruse 35¢ 34¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 Portugal? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $120 −$2 -2%
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 24 $30 +$33 +109%
Targu Mures: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich Jun 24 $30 +$23 +76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $30 +$24 +79%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 22 $61 −$31 -50%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 22 $30 +$17 +57%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $31 +$60 +197%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend Jun 21 $30 +$23 +76%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 20 $102 +$3 +3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $30 −$30 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $30 +$12 +40%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $31 +$39 +129%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $30 +$35 +117%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $30 +$15 +50%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $30 +$30 +100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 Portugal? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 65¢ $30 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $30 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 35¢ $31 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 64¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $96 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Targu Mures: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich BUY Martin Krumich 56¢ $30 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 47¢ $30 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 43¢ $31 2d
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 55¢ $30 3d
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 55¢ $30 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $31 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro SELL Eva Lys 37¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $21 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Paul Jubb BUY Pierre-Hugues Herbert 58¢ $30 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Zdenek Kolar BUY Tom Gentzsch 63¢ $30 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $31 4d
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Katie Boulter 56¢ $30 4d
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 33¢ $31 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Taylor Townsend BUY Gabriela Ruse 56¢ $30 4d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Tamara Korpatsch 57¢ $51 6d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva BUY Anna Blinkova 48¢ $51 6d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 64¢ $30 6d
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide BUY Facundo Acosta 59¢ $30 6d
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 32¢ $31 6d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc BUY Tamara Korpatsch 57¢ $20 6d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva BUY Anna Blinkova 48¢ $51 6d
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 59¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.88 · official $133.88 (match) · 83 history records