Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0da5…b60d sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$372 (-6%) realized −$395 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$380
other 20% +$30
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 8 +26.1% +14.1% 62% 25% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 25% -15.2%
10% +3.1% 12% -23.3%
15% -6.8% 12% -30.7%
20% -16.0% 12% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$586 vs −$1,101 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage172d
Avg bet$693
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 34¢ $284 $307 +$23 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $290 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 2? Jan 04 $290 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Heat Dec 29 $728 −$728 -100%
Kings vs. Lakers Dec 29 $840 +$160 +19%
Grizzlies vs. Wizards Dec 28 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Dec 28 $966 −$966 -100%
Nets vs. Timberwolves Dec 28 $566 +$2,764 +488%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $662 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $290 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $290 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $290 165d
Nuggets vs. Heat BUY Nuggets 56¢ $326 169d
Nuggets vs. Heat BUY Nuggets 56¢ $402 169d
Kings vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 84¢ $840 170d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $20 170d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $3 170d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $1,476 170d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $93 170d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $4 170d
Grizzlies vs. Wizards BUY Grizzlies 70¢ $13 170d
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers BUY Celtics 69¢ $955 170d
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers BUY Celtics 69¢ $11 170d
Nets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nets 17¢ $566 171d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY No 99¢ $662 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.68 · official $306.68 (match) · 21 history records