Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0D 0x0da5…4b12 crypto 1022 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-3%) realized −$184 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate57%693W / 521L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day103.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$671
7 days−$737
14 days−$757
30 days−$868
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 315 -63.6% -67.1% 16% 8% -43.0%
≤30d 1214 -21.0% -28.5% 57% 23% -21.5%
≤90d 1214 -21.0% -28.5% 57% 23% -21.5%
all 1214 -21.0% -28.5% 57% 23% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 23% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 18% -29.0%
15% -41.6% 8% -35.9%
20% -47.3% 4% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses693 / 521
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1214 / 1022
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day103.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 360 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$3 -145%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 3500 history records