Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0D 0x0da3…1b45 sports 1507 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,257 (-3%) realized −$1,230 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%727W / 777L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$372est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$172
7 days+$128
14 days+$55
30 days−$355
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$583
other 12% −$552
crypto 1% −$4
world 1% −$154
politics 1% −$110
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +13.1% +2.4% 46% 46% -4.4%
≤30d 111 -7.0% -15.9% 40% 40% -20.0%
≤90d 1076 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 46% -13.5%
all 1504 -2.5% -11.7% 48% 48% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 48% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 47% -20.7%
15% -27.9% 44% -28.4%
20% -35.0% 38% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses727 / 777
Est. fees paid−$372
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1504 / 1507
History coverage118d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $102 $76 −$26 (-25%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $74 $72 −$1 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $86 −$2 -3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $54 −$35 -64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $11 +$9 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$101 +199%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $20 +$31 +152%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$20 +104%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 −$23 -62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $73 −$72 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$72 +235%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $63 −$8 -13%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $32 −$14 -46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 +$53 +124%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$67 +650%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +238%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$20 -66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $12 +$8 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$15 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$111 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $28 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $55 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $52 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $1 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $4 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $25 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $1 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $19 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $11 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $11 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $12 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $11 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $15 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $28 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $35 5h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $1 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $27 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 45¢ $22 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $20 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $17 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.74 · official $183.75 (match) · 3174 history records