Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0da0…b331 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$100 (+3%) realized +$72 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +175% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +139% what you keep after slip
Net edge+139%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$481
sports 49% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+148.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +174.9% +148.8% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 10 +174.9% +148.8% 50% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 10 +174.9% +148.8% 50% 50% +0.3%
all 10 +174.9% +148.8% 50% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +148.8% 50% +0.3%
10% +125.0% 40% -9.3%
15% +103.2% 30% -18.1%
20% +83.3% 30% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +175% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$105 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 29¢ $150 $199 +$49 (+33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $175 $156 −$19 (-11%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $854 +$158 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $760 +$122 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$160 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $304 +$296 +97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $590 +$170 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.28 · official $433.07 (match) · 25 history records