Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d9f…461e other 288 markets active 0h ago coverage 537d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$235 (+3%) realized +$238 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%122W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$23
world 2% −$30
politics 1% $0
economics 1% +$40
tech 1% +$13
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+69.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +150.5% +126.6% 69% 69% +6.1%
≤30d 79 +43.0% +29.4% 62% 35% -4.6%
≤90d 264 +91.2% +73.0% 45% 31% -7.6%
all 275 +87.6% +69.7% 44% 31% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.7% 31% -7.3%
10% +53.5% 23% -16.2%
15% +38.6% 19% -24.3%
20% +25.1% 17% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +101% → late +74% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$238
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses122 / 153
Open positions13
Markets (closed)275 / 288
History coverage537d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 85¢ 78¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 78¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 83¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 79¢ 70¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 68¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 65¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 151 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $45 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $64 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $9 −$3 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$3 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $66 −$5 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $33 +$3 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 27 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 27 $24 +$4 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $50 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $42 +$7 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $53 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 25 $9 +$4 +50%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $4 −$1 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $62 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 20 $39 −$8 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $47 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $2 5m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $25 6h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $15 6h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $6 6h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.27 · official $47.98 · 3168 history records