Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d9f…ff8e sports 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,493 (+3%) realized +$2,493 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$4,052per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$408
14 days+$408
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$2,078
other 17% +$4,169
crypto 2% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.4% -22.6% 60% 60% -7.1%
≤30d 5 -14.4% -22.6% 60% 60% -7.1%
≤90d 18 +0.4% -9.2% 78% 50% -6.7%
all 18 +0.4% -9.2% 78% 50% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 50% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 33% -15.6%
15% -25.8% 33% -23.8%
20% -33.1% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$6,520) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$824 vs −$2,317 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage79d
Avg bet$4,052
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,178 −$1,169 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,349 +$1,202 +36%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,021 −$3,000 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,436 +$1,927 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,990 +$1,448 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 06 $5,164 −$5,067 -98%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $7,925 +$1,234 +16%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $7,547 +$377 +5%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 04 $7,187 +$359 +5%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $6,643 +$553 +8%
Jazz vs. Rockets Apr 04 $6,520 +$122 +2%
Bulls vs. Knicks Apr 04 $5,892 +$628 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 03 $1,100 +$184 +17%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 02 $4,552 +$257 +6%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $3,071 +$1,486 +48%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $1,550 +$1,002 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $786 +$761 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,178 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,345 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,021 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,363 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4,436 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,438 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2,990 6d
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 2¢ $31 77d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 37¢ $5,164 77d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $9,159 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 87¢ $4,461 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $41 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $37 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $6 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $93 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $28 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 85¢ $255 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $30 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $132 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $188 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $254 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $320 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $5 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $254 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $138 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $35 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $136 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $27 78d
Pacers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 86¢ $54 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records