Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d9e…6b2f crypto 383 markets active 4d ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$906 (-8%) realized −$904 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%161W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$673
14 days−$552
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,599
politics 1% −$99
world 1% +$2
other 0% −$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -38.3% -44.2% 37% 33% -31.1%
≤30d 158 -20.9% -28.4% 57% 54% -17.7%
≤90d 158 -20.9% -28.4% 57% 54% -17.7%
all 379 -23.7% -31.0% 42% 41% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 41% -24.0%
10% -37.6% 23% -31.3%
15% -43.6% 20% -37.9%
20% -49.2% 19% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$904
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses161 / 218
Open positions4
Markets (closed)379 / 383
History coverage290d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 176 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$15 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $85 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$12 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $79 +$175 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $131 +$58 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $62 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $78 +$288 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$48 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.44 · official $52.44 (match) · 1606 history records