Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0D 0x0d98…261e weather 277 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$955 (+2%) realized +$909 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%263W / 8L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day48.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$109
7 days+$279
14 days+$597
30 days+$864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$911
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +1.0% -8.6% 96% 2% -8.0%
≤30d 271 +2.4% -7.3% 97% 3% -7.8%
≤90d 271 +2.4% -7.3% 97% 3% -7.8%
all 271 +2.4% -7.3% 97% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 3% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 1% -16.6%
15% -24.3% 1% -24.6%
20% -31.7% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.53 per $1 lost it wins $9.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,184
Realized+$909
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses263 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)271 / 277
History coverage22d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day48.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $345 $354 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $241 $252 +$11 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $221 $235 +$15 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $135 $142 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $113 $116 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $250 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $419 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $119 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $292 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 16 $447 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $180 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $279 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $291 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $406 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $220 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $390 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $613 −$12 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $135 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $164 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $498 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $164 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $369 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $202 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $233 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $498 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $111 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $207 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $148 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $306 +$11 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 98¢ $102 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 98¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 98¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 98¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $113 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $62 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $44 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $111 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $34 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 97¢ $113 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 97¢ $76 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 97¢ $94 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $64 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $31 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $55 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $297 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $37 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $100 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $58 19h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $221 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $49 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $105 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,184.03 · official $1,184.03 (match) · 1189 history records