Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d97…8ab7 crypto 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$192 (-9%) realized −$167 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate68%100W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$196
14 days−$196
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$31
sports 14% −$237
other 12% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.8% -42.8% 33% 33% -59.5%
≤30d 113 -6.6% -15.5% 65% 65% -17.8%
≤90d 146 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 55% -16.1%
all 146 -6.9% -15.7% 68% 55% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 55% -16.1%
10% -23.8% 53% -24.2%
15% -31.2% 33% -31.5%
20% -37.9% 7% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses100 / 46
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage34d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $155 $130 −$25 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $106 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $244 −$239 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$2 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $156 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $106 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $244 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $0 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.38 · official $130.38 (match) · 274 history records