Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0D 0x0d94…77d6 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$42 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$45
politics 25% −$2
economics 23% −$2
crypto 11% +$4
tech 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +22.7% +11.1% 100% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 2 +22.7% +11.1% 100% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 4 +12.3% +1.6% 100% 25% +1.8%
all 42 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.9%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.6%
15% -25.4% 5% -26.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage238d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $74 $72 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$23 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $50 +$2 +3%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 27 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $47 +$1 +2%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 04 $32 +$15 +48%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Jan 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 07 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025? Dec 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? Dec 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 24 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Nov 21 $5 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? Nov 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 9? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 10? Nov 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 10? Nov 21 $6 $0 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 8? Nov 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Nov 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 31? Nov 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 October 27-November 2? Nov 08 $9 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 28? Oct 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 28 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 28 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 28 $440 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 28 $928 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108,000 and $110,000 on October Oct 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 28 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 28 $200 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 28 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025? Oct 28 $943 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 27? Oct 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 27 $300 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Oct 27 $1,150 −$6 -0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Oct 27 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $75 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? BUY No 98¢ $51 71d
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $51 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $50 87d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 126d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76,000 on February 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on February 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $47 138d
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY No 67¢ $32 144d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $25 192d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 98¢ $14 196d
Will Trump announce Howard Lutnick as next Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $6 196d
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5 196d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 94¢ $78 209d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 209d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 98¢ $80 212d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? SELL No 93¢ $5 212d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98,000 on November 10? BUY No 94¢ $6 224d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 9? BUY No 100¢ $6 224d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY No 98¢ $5 226d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $1 226d
Will Solana reach $210 October 27-November 2? BUY No 96¢ $9 234d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 234d
Will Solana reach $250 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 234d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 236d
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa BUY No 100¢ $6 236d
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla SELL No 100¢ $557 236d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.52 · official $71.52 (match) · 96 history records