Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d94…b294 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$310 (-84%) realized −$50 · open −$260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$286
world 4% −$13
sports 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$260
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage87d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $299 $50 −$249 (-83%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Valve remove Nuke from the Map Pool? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-85%)
Will Valve remove Ancient from the Map Pool? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by April 1, 2026? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.82 · official $56.84 (match) · 21 history records