Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0D 0x0d93…07bc world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$7
other 26% +$4
politics 7% +$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +133.9% +111.7% 27% 13% -9.0%
≤90d 15 +133.9% +111.7% 27% 13% -9.0%
all 31 +66.4% +50.6% 45% 13% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.6% 13% -8.6%
10% +36.2% 3% -17.4%
15% +23.0% 3% -25.4%
20% +11.0% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +126% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage396d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $91 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $66 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $36 +$6 +17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel strike on Iran on June 27? Dec 13 $2 $0 +13%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $14 +$3 +19%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr Jun 05 $7 $0 +7%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in May? May 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? May 24 $29 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $40 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $4 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $35 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $49 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $48 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $48 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.68 · official $39.56 (match) · 136 history records