Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0D 0x0d93…20ad other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$280 (-19%) realized −$100 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +215% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +185% what you keep after slip
Net edge+185%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$593
sports 9% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+185.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +215.3% +185.3% 50% 50% -40.0%
≤30d 8 +215.3% +185.3% 50% 50% -40.0%
≤90d 8 +215.3% +185.3% 50% 50% -40.0%
all 8 +215.3% +185.3% 50% 50% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +185.3% 50% -40.0%
10% +158.0% 50% -45.7%
15% +133.1% 25% -51.0%
20% +110.2% 12% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +215% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$120 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage6d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $560 $398 −$162 (-29%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $90 $72 −$18 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$15 -83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $158 −$157 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$295 +4900%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $118 +$31 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $135 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $0 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $6 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $112 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $575 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.00 · official $470.00 (match) · 26 history records