Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d8b…35dc other 18 markets active 3d ago coverage 103d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$64 (+20%) realized +$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$13
world 29% +$28
tech 22% +$7
sports 9% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.2% +12.3% 100% 100% +13.3%
≤30d 6 +20.5% +9.1% 100% 83% +6.6%
≤90d 11 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 91% +12.9%
all 11 +25.2% +13.3% 100% 91% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 91% +12.9%
10% +2.4% 55% +2.1%
15% -7.5% 18% -7.8%
20% -16.5% 9% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage103d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 69¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 95¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 44¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-38%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+55%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +21%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 +$8 +33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ May 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 16 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $30 +$16 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $30 +$8 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $24 +$6 +27%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $18 +$6 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 2d
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 4d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 4d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 4d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 7d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 72¢ $20 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $25 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $53 7d
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $23 22d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 31d
Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ BUY Yes 86¢ $20 31d
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 54d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 65¢ $30 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 79¢ $24 76d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY No 74¢ $18 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.35 · official $65.31 (match) · 29 history records