Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0D 0x0d8b…04df crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%54W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +8.6% -1.8% 79% 79% -2.0%
≤30d 78 -5.1% -14.2% 69% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 78 -5.1% -14.2% 69% 50% -8.3%
all 78 -5.1% -14.2% 69% 50% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 50% -8.3%
10% -22.4% 31% -17.1%
15% -29.9% 18% -25.1%
20% -36.7% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses54 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage27d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 69¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 20 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 20 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 20 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 20 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 20 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 20 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 20 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $61 +$28 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 20 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 19 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.88 · official $3.88 (match) · 168 history records