Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0D 0x0d8b…a0ef other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$109 (+74%) realized +$133 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$84
sports 1% +$1
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 50% +110.9%
≤30d 6 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 50% +110.9%
≤90d 6 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 50% +110.9%
all 6 +12.3% +1.6% 50% 50% +110.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 50% +110.9%
10% -8.1% 50% +90.8%
15% -17.0% 50% +72.3%
20% -25.1% 33% +55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +133% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +133% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$1 · ×28.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.28 per $1 lost it wins $28.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$133
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 25¢ $65 $41 −$24 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 25 $56 +$72 +129%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 +$40 +205%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $66 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $56 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.62 · official $40.46 (match) · 15 history records