Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d89…08f8 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$29 (+12%) realized +$81 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.9% +6.7% 33% 33% +6.3%
≤30d 3 +17.9% +6.7% 33% 33% +6.3%
≤90d 3 +17.9% +6.7% 33% 33% +6.3%
all 3 +17.9% +6.7% 33% 33% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 33% +6.3%
10% -3.5% 33% -3.9%
15% -12.8% 33% -13.2%
20% -21.4% 33% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$27 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs the bug 64¢ 62¢ $44 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Bald 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $51 −$5 -10%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 26 $50 +$81 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY the bug 64¢ $45 25m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 41¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Walczaki 32¢ $46 4h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 34¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 42¢ $51 7h
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament SELL PCIFIC 99¢ $131 7h
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY PCIFIC 37¢ $50 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.57 · official $42.57 (match) · 7 history records