Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d88…1eeb other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$4
sports 25% −$5
politics 24% −$5
crypto 10% +$1
economics 5% −$1
finance 4% −$2
culture 3% $0
world 2% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 32 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 186 -0.1% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 162
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage170d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $142 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $38 −$2 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $137 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $83 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $94 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $50 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $169 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $146 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $139 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 30 $94 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 29 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 28 $82 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 28 $44 $0 -1%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $53 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $138 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 26 $95 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $281 −$2 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $99 +$3 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 22 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 21 $47 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 5h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 12d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $35 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $44 25d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $45 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $36 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 37d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $49 73d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $49 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 96¢ $43 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 96¢ $43 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? SELL No 91¢ $49 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY No 91¢ $49 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $48 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $48 74d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $39 74d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $39 75d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $47 75d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $47 75d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $39 75d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $39 75d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 75d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 76d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 76d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 76d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 76d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 76d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $49 76d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $49 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records