Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d86…08e1 other 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 221L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$39
sports 20% −$14
politics 8% −$3
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$3
world 2% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 60 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage133d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $487 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $341 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $450 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $380 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $333 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $222 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $370 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $700 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $378 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $284 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $257 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $920 −$3 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $481 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $315 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 9h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 25h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 28h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $55 30h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 31h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 32h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 36h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 37h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 40h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 40h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 41h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 47h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.51 · official $54.51 (match) · 1345 history records