Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0D 0x0d85…b397 sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 744d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$964 (-26%) realized −$1,009 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days−$383
14 days−$383
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$51
other 25% −$146
politics 22% −$551
economics 15% −$10
crypto 7% −$169
world 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +34.2% +21.4% 46% 46% -32.3%
≤30d 37 +34.2% +21.4% 46% 46% -32.3%
≤90d 37 +34.2% +21.4% 46% 46% -32.3%
all 55 +5.9% -4.2% 42% 40% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 40% -39.0%
10% -13.3% 38% -44.9%
15% -21.7% 36% -50.2%
20% -29.4% 25% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$54 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

744d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$1,009
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)55 / 63
History coverage744d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $50 $84 +$34 (+68%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 18¢ 12¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 48¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +68%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$28 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$50 -49%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 09 $70 +$59 +84%
Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election? Nov 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Who will win the VP debate according to polls? Nov 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his North Carolina Oct 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election? Sep 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Reserve" during the X space? Sep 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "DJT" during the X space? Sep 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during the X space? Sep 17 $50 +$31 +61%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Sep 14 $50 −$41 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $84 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $103 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $51 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 28h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $50 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $51 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.74 · official $550.37 · 113 history records